Publications
This page hosts publications from previous and current group members during the time period of 2019 to present day. Underlined names indicate group members or current/former graduate students. For publications prior to 2019 see Google Scholar.
2025
Kirtman, B. P., Arcodia, M. C., Becker, E. J., Besong, K., Boyd, J. S., Daher, H., Gifford, I., Infanti, J., Kaiser, J., Kramer, S., Larson, S. M., Laurindo, L. C., Lopez, H., Malloy, K., Martinez, C., Papazian, K., Pegion, K., Perlin, N., Schuler, C., Schoenwald, V., Siqueira, L. S. P., Zavadoff, B., & Zhang, W. (2025). A Simplified-Physics Atmosphere General Circulation Model for Idealized Climate Dynamics Studies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106(10), E2073–E2086. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0196.1
Zavadoff, B. L., Cheng, K.-Y., Lopez, H., Kim, D., West, R., Gao, K., et al. (2025). Western US subseasonal atmospheric river prediction in the global-nested GFDL SHiELD model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130, e2025JD043896. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD043896
Zavadoff, B., Kirtman, B. (2025). Characterization of Western US hydrologic processes linked to atmospheric rivers in two sets of seasonal global retrospective forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 63, 264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07740-6
2024
Arcodia, M. C., E. Becker, and B. P. Kirtman, 2024: Subseasonal Variability of U.S. Coastal Sea Level from MJO and ENSO Teleconnection Interference. Wea. Forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0002.1, in press.
Laurindo, L. C., Siqueira, L, Small, R. J., Thompson, L., & Kirtman, B. P. (2024). Quantifying the contribution of ocean advection and surface flux to the upper-ocean salinity variability resolved by climate model simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL106354. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106354.
Siqueira, L., B. P. Kirtman, L. C. Laurindo, J. T. Fasullo, and A. Hu, 2024: Quantifying the Role of Ocean Dynamics in SST Variability across GCMs and Observations. J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0686.1, in press.
Gifford, I., Gangopadhyay, A., Andres, M. et al. Synchronicity of the Gulf Stream path downstream of Cape Hatteras and the region of maximum wind stress curl. Sci Rep 14, 18479 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68461-0
2023
Kramer, S. J., Huang, S., McClure, C. D., Chaveste, M. R., & Lurmann, F. (2023). Projected smoke impacts from increased prescribed fire activity in California's high wildfire risk landscape. Atmospheric Environment, 119993.
K. A. Besong, B. P. Kirtman. (2023) Sensitivity of the Blocking-North Atlantic Oscillation Relationship to Space, Time, and Index. Climate Dynamics (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06965-7.
Yu Gao, Igor Kamenkovich, and Natalie Perlin, 2023: Origins of mesoscale mixed-layer depth variability in the Southern Ocean. Ocean Science, 19, 615–627, 2023 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-615-2023
Schneider, E. K., B. P. Kirtman, and N. Perlin, 2023: The Role of Atmospheric Noise in Decadal SST Variability. J. Climate, 36, 2147–2166, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0399.1.
Arcodia, M.C., Kirtman, B.P. Using simplified linear and nonlinear models to assess ENSO-modulated MJO teleconnections. Clim Dyn (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06864-x
Arcodia, M. C., Barnes, E. A., Mayer, K. J., Lee, J., Ordonez, A., & Ahn, M. S. (2023). Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI. Environmental Research: Climate.
Malloy, K., & Kirtman, B. P. (2023). Subseasonal Great Plains rainfall via remote extratropical teleconnections: Regional application of theory-guided causal networks. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128, e2022JD037795. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037795
Zavadoff, B. L., Gao, K., Lopez, H., Lee, S.-K., Kim, D., & Harris, L. M. (2023). Improved MJO forecasts using the experimental global-nested GFDL SHiELD model. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL101622. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101622
2022
Daniel Perlin and Gecheng Zha, 2022: Numerical Study of Reverse Thrust Generation Using Co-Flow Jet. AIAA SCITECH 2022 Forum. January 3-7, 2022. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2022-1532.
Laurindo, L. C., Small, R. J., Thompson, L. A., Siqueira, L., Bryan, F. O., Chang, P., et al. (2022). Role of ocean and atmosphere variability in scale-dependent thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127, e2021JC018340. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018340
Gao, Y., Kamenkovich, I., Perlin, N., & Kirtman, B. (2022). Oceanic Advection Controls Mesoscale Mixed Layer Heat Budget and Air–Sea Heat Exchange in the Southern Ocean, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 52(4), 537-555. DOI: 10.1175/JPO-D-21-0063.1.
Light, C.X., Arbic, B.K., Martin, P.E. et al. Effects of grid spacing on high-frequency precipitation variance in coupled high-resolution global ocean–atmosphere models. Clim Dyn 59, 2887–2913 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06257-6 </a>
Malloy, K., Kirtman, B.P. The summer Asia–North America teleconnection and its modulation by ENSO in Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). Clim Dyn (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06205-4
Zhang, W., Kirtman, B., Xiang, B., Siqueira, L., Infanti, J., and Perlin N., January 2022: Decadal variability of Southeast US rainfall in an eddying global coupled model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(1), DOI:10.1029/2021GL096709.
Becker, E. J., B. P. Kirtman, M. L’Heureux, Á. G. Muñoz, and K. Pegion, 2022: A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 103, E973–E995, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0327.1.
Hammerschlag, N., McDonnell, L. H., Rider, M. J., Street, G. M., Hazen, E. L., Natanson, L. J., McCandless, C. T., Boudreau, M. R., Gallagher, A. J., Pinsky, M. L., & Kirtman, B. (2022). Ocean warming alters the distributional range, migratory timing, and spatial protections of an apex predator, the Tiger Shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Global Change Biology, 28(6), 1990-2005.
Perlin, D, GeCheng Zha, G.-C., 2022: Numerical Study of Reverse Thrust Generation Using Co-Flow Jet. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) SciTech Forum, January 3-7, 2022, San Diego, CA & Virtual.
2021
Zavadoff, B.L, Kirtman, B.P. The Pacific decadal oscillation as a modulator of summertime North Atlantic Rossby wave breaking. Clim Dyn 56, 207–225 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05475-0
Mabel C. Costa, Nobre, P., Oke, P., Schiller, A., Siqueira L. S. P., Castelão, G. P. (2021), The Spectral Diagram as a new tool for model assessment in the frequency domain: Application to a global ocean general circulation model with tides. Computers & Geosciences.
Zhang, W., Kirtman, B. P., Xiang, B., Siqueira, L., Infanti, J., and Perlin N., January 2022: Decadal variability of Southeast US rainfall in an eddying global coupled model. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(1), DOI:10.1029/2021GL096709.
Siqueira, L., Kirtman, B. P., & Laurindo, L. C. (2021). Forecasting Remote Atmospheric Responses to Decadal Kuroshio Stability Transitions, Journal of Climate, 34(1), 379-395.
Zhang, W., Kirtman, B., Siqueira, L. et al. (2021). Understanding the signal-to-noise paradox in decadal climate predictability from CMIP5 and an eddying global coupled model. Clim Dynamics, 56, 2895-2913.
Joh, Y., Di Lorenzo, E., Siqueira, L., and Kirtman, B. (2021). Enhanced interactions of Kuroshio Extension with tropical Pacific in a changing climate. Nature Science Reports, 11, 6247.
2020
Hansen, K. A., Majumdar, S.J., & Kirtman, B. P. (2020). Identifying Subseasonal Variability Relevant to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Weather and Forecasting, 1-64.
Perlin, N., Kamenkovich, I., Gao, Y., & Kirtman, B. P. (2020). A study of mesoscale air-sea interaction in the Southern Ocean with a regional coupled model. Ocean Modelling, 101660.
Infanti, J. M., Kirtman, B. P., Aumen, N. G., Stamm, J., & Polsky, C. (2020) Aligning Climate Models with Stakeholder Needs: Advances in Communicating Future Rainfall Uncertainties for South Florida Decision Makers. Earth and Space Science, e2019EA000725.
Becker, E., Kirtman, B. P., & Pegion, K. (2020). Evolution of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(9), e2020GL087408.
Arcodia, M. C., Kirtman, B. P., & Siqueira, L. S. (2020). How MJO teleconnections and ENSO interference impacts US precipitation. Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640.
Zavadoff, B. L., & Kirtman, B. P. (2020). Dynamic and Thermodynamic Modulators of European Atmospheric Rivers. Journal of Climate, 33(10), 4167-4185.
Malloy, K. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2020). Predictability of midsummer Great Plains low-level jet and associated precipitation. Weather and Forecasting, 35(1), 215-235.
Mariotti, A., Baggett, C., Barnes, E. A., Becker, E., Butler, A., Collins, D. C., ... & Kirtman, B. P. (2020). Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (2020).
2019
Bif, M. B., Siqueira, L., & D. A. Hansell, (2019). Warm events induce loss of resilience in organic carbon production in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33, 1174-1186.
Arcodia, M., Kirtman, B.P. & Siqueira, L., (2019). Interference Between MJO and ENSO Teleconnection Signals Impacts US Rainfall. AGUFM, 2019, pp.A34E-07.
Zhang, W., & Kirtman, B. (2019). Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability from an Interactive Ensemble Model. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(6), 3387-3397.
Zhang, W., & Kirtman, B. (2019). Understanding the Signal‐to‐noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model. Geophysical Research Letters.
Pegion, K., Becker, E., & Kirtman, B.P. (2019). The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(10), 2043-2060.
Malloy, K. M., & Kirtman, B.P. (2019). Predictability of mid-summer Great Plains low-level jet and associated precipitation. Weather and Forecasting.
Infanti, J. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2019). A comparison of CCSM4 high-resolution and low-resolution predictions for south Florida and southeast United States drought. Climate Dynamics, 52(11), 6877-6892.
Kirtman, B. P. et al. (2019). 100 Years of progress in understanding the dynamics of coupled atmosphere/ocean variability. Meteorological Monographs.
Kirtman, B., et al. (2019). Cloud radiative feedbacks and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate.
Lopez, H., & Kirtman, B.P. (2019). ENSO influence over the Pacific North American sector: uncertainty due to atmospheric internal variability. Climate Dynamics, 52(9-10), 6149-6172.
Lucas Cardoso Laurindo, Leo Siqueira, & Ben P. Kirtman (2019). Diagnosing Energy and Heat Transfer in the North Atlantic Region of Idealized and Realistic Ocean-Atmosphere Models: A Frequency-Domain Approach. AGUFM, 2019: A23S-3033.
Kirtman, B. P., et al. (2019). Fast SST error growth in the southeast Pacific Ocean: comparison between high and low-resolution CCSM4 retrospective forecasts. Climate Dynamics.
Laurindo, L. C., Siqueira, L., & Kirtman, B.P. (2019). Cross-spectral analysis of the SST/10-m wind speed coupling resolved by satellite products and climate model simulations. Climate Dynamics, 52(9-10), 5071-5098.
Larson, S. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2019). Linking preconditioning to extreme ENSO events and reduced ensemble spread. Climate Dynamics, 52(12), 7417-7433.
Lopez, H., & Kirtman, B. (2019). East Asian Monsoon as a modulator of US Great Plains Heat Waves. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
Zavadoff, B. L., & Kirtman, B.P. (2019). North Atlantic Summertime Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking: Climatology, Impacts, and Connections to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 32(2), 485-500.
Bell, R., & Kirtman, B. (2019). Extreme environmental forcing on the container ship SS El Faro. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 1-16.
Bell, R., & Kirtman, B. (2019). Seasonal Forecasting of Wind and Waves in the North Atlantic Using a Grand Multimodel Ensemble. Weather and Forecasting, 34(1), 31-59.